What To Expect For Bitcoin After The Halving?

Summary

Bitcoin halving is a scheduled event that reduces the rate of new bitcoin (BTC) entering circulation by 50%, making the asset increasingly scarce over time. Historically, BTC has reached new all-time highs approximately 12–18 months after each halving as reduced supply meets growing demand. Following the April 2024 halving, BTC surpassed $125,000 by late 2025, continuing a pattern seen in previous market cycles. While past performance does not guarantee future results, many investors monitor halving events as one of BTC’s most important long-term catalysts. Investors looking to gain exposure to BTC can do so through a tax-advantaged Crypto IRA or a Premium Custody Account (PCA) at iTrustCapital, depending on their investment goals.

Key Takeaways:

The Bitcoin halving reduces the rate of new BTC entering circulation by 50%
Price increases have historically occurred 12-18 months after each halving
The April 2024 halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block
BTC has since surpassed $125,000, following the historical post-halving trend
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results

What is Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin halving is a programmed event occurring approximately every four years that reduces the block reward paid to miners by 50%, decreasing the rate at which new BTC enters circulation.

Every four years, Bitcoin undergoes this programmed event called "the halving," which reduces the daily issuance of new BTC being created and paid out to miners who secure the Bitcoin network. The April 2024 halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This event occurs because Bitcoin is programmed to have only 21 million bitcoins ever created, similar to how gold has a limited supply.

What To Expect Post Halving?

Following the Bitcoin halving, the initial reaction is typically marked by heightened media coverage and increased investor interest. Financial news outlets extensively cover the event, emphasizing its significance for the crypto market.

However, it's important not to set expectations too high right away.

While the halving may initially trigger a slight rise in prices, historical trends indicate that it takes time for this increase in value to fully occur. Significant price appreciation has typically materialized 12-18 months after each halving event. Therefore, while an immediate spike might not occur, it does not negate the potential for future growth.

What Happens to Bitcoin 12-18 Months After the Halving?

The correlation between Bitcoin halving events and its price can be understood by examining the principles of supply and demand. When the supply of newly minted BTC decreases and demand rises, the resulting scarcity can drive a price surge although other factors may also influence this trend.

Historically, about one year after the halving, bitcoin's price tends to reach new highs.

Let's take a look at bitcoin's price during and after all four halving events.

Bitcoin Halving History: Price Performance Comparison

Halving Event	Date	Price at Halving	Peak Price After	Time to Peak	Percentage Gain
First Halving	November 2012	~$12	~$1,100	12 months	~9,000%
Second Halving	July 2016	~$650	~$18,000	17 months	~2,700%
Third Halving	May 2020	~$8,500	~$69,000	18 months	~700%
Fourth Halving	April 2024	~$64,000	~$125,000+	18 months	~95%+

The First Halving - November 2012

Price of BTC During the Halving: ∼$12
12 Months After the Halving: ∼$1,100

The Second Halving - July 2016

Price of BTC During the Halving: ∼$650
17 Months After the Halving: ∼$18,000

The Third Halving - May 2020

Price of BTC During the Halving: ∼$8,500
18 Months After the Halving: ∼$69,000

The Fourth Halving - April 2024

Price of BTC During the Halving: ∼$64,000
18 Months After the Halving: ∼$125,000+

Following the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin continued its historical pattern of post-halving appreciation. By December 2024, BTC had crossed the $100,000 threshold, and by late 2025, it reached a new all-time high of $125,000. This performance aligns with the 12-18 month timeframe observed in previous halving cycles.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Does bitcoin go up after the halving?

Historically, bitcoin has reached new all-time highs following each of its four halving events. However, these gains have not occurred immediately. In previous cycles, significant price appreciation generally took place 12–18 months after the halving as the reduction in new supply gradually impacted the market. While many investors view this pattern as bullish, past performance does not guarantee future results.

How long after the halving does bitcoin peak?

Looking at previous market cycles, bitcoin has historically reached its cycle peak approximately 12–18 months after a halving event. The 2012 cycle peaked roughly one year later, while the 2016 and 2020 cycles peaked closer to 17–18 months afterward. The 2024 halving was followed by bitcoin surpassing $125,000 within a similar timeframe. Future cycles may not follow the same pattern, but investors often use this historical window as a reference point.

When is the next Bitcoin halving?

The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in 2028. Bitcoin halvings take place every 210,000 blocks, which works out to roughly once every four years. Each halving reduces the number of new bitcoins issued to miners, reinforcing Bitcoin's scarcity model. This predictable issuance schedule is one of Bitcoin's defining characteristics.

What happens to Bitcoin miners after the halving?

After a halving, miners receive half the amount of bitcoin for validating blocks on the network. Following the April 2024 halving, the block reward decreased from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. This reduction can pressure mining profitability, especially for operators with higher costs. Over time, miners often rely more heavily on transaction fees and operational efficiency to remain profitable.

Why does Bitcoin halving affect the price?

The halving reduces the flow of new bitcoin entering the market, effectively lowering new supply by 50%. If demand remains stable or increases while supply growth slows, economic theory suggests prices may rise over time. Many investors view Bitcoin's halving schedule as a built-in scarcity mechanism similar to the limited supply of precious metals like gold. However, market conditions, regulation, adoption, and investor sentiment also influence price.

How many Bitcoin halvings are left?

There are approximately 28 Bitcoin halvings remaining before the maximum supply of 21 million BTC is reached. The final bitcoin is expected to be mined around the year 2140. At that point, miners will no longer receive block rewards and will instead be compensated primarily through network transaction fees. This gradual reduction in issuance is a core part of Bitcoin's monetary design.

Can I buy Bitcoin in an IRA?

Yes. Investors can buy and sell bitcoin within a self-directed Crypto IRA, potentially benefiting from the tax advantages associated with Traditional and Roth IRAs. Platforms like iTrustCapital allow investors to gain exposure to bitcoin while keeping their retirement investments within a tax-advantaged account structure. This approach is often used by long-term investors seeking to reduce the tax impact of future gains.

Can I buy Bitcoin outside of an IRA?

Yes. Investors who want direct ownership of Bitcoin without using a retirement account can purchase it through a taxable account. iTrustCapital's Premium Custody Account (PCA) provides a secure, closed-loop environment for buying, selling, and holding digital assets, with USD-only funding and withdrawal capabilities and no connection to external wallets. This structure is designed for investors who want exposure to crypto while reducing some of the risks associated with traditional self-custody solutions.

Is bitcoin's price determined only by the halving?

No. While the halving is one of Bitcoin's most significant supply-side events, many other factors influence price. Institutional adoption, ETF demand, macroeconomic conditions, interest rates, regulatory developments, and overall market sentiment can all affect Bitcoin's value. The halving is best viewed as one component of a much larger market ecosystem.

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